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Ecommerce results & predictions

Posted by Michael Bloch in ecommerce (Wednesday May 24, 2006 )

Figures from the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce released last week estimate that retail ecommerce sales in the US during the first quarter hit over 25 billion dollars (seasonally adjusted). This represents an increase of 7 percent over the last quarter of 2005.

First quarter 2006 ecommerce results were 25.4% more than the same period last year – that’s three times the growth compared to overall retail sales. US ecommerce sales for 2006’s first quarter represent 2.7 percent of total sales according to the Bureau.

Forrester research has predicted that online sales are expected to grow by 20 percent to $211.4 billion over 2006, but that includes travel. Without travel, online sales are expected to reach $138 billion (not including travel).

There’s quite a difference between what the Census Bureau and Forrester reports; I’m not sure why.

For example, the Census Bureau reported total ecommerce sales last year of around the $88 million mark (adjusted), which it estimated to be around 2.3% of total retail sales, wheras Forrester put it at $113.6 billion, representing 4.7 percent of total retail sales in 2005.

Anyway, it’s late, my head hurts, so take your pick :):

Read the Census Bureau Ecommerce sale report

Read the Forrester Ecommerce report

By the way, an interesting point I noticed in the Forrester report was that retailers reported 22% of offline sales are influenced by the Web. Heh, I remember just a few years ago a major Australian electrical/furniture retailer stating that they weren’t interested in the web as they didn’t believe it would have much impact on their business. It was sort of like Microsoft years ago underestimating the impact search would have. Both are somewhat regretting those views now :).


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